Power
West Africa power demand projected to grow by 4 percent annually
A new analysis indicates that electricity consumption across West Africa will expand steadily through 2035, driven by urbanisation and demographic shifts.
Key points
- Electricity demand in West Africa is forecast to increase at a 4 per cent compound annual growth rate up to 2035.
- Gas-fired generation remains central to the region's power sector, according to S&P Global.
- Infrastructure bottlenecks, payment risks, and fuel supply constraints pose significant challenges to meeting this demand.
LEADERSHIP reported that electricity consumption across West Africa is expected to maintain an upward trajectory over the next decade. According to findings from S&P Global, the region's power demand is projected to record a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4 per cent between 2025 and 2035. This anticipated expansion builds upon a relatively low baseline, spurred by rapid population growth, expanding urban centres, increasing household electrification, and broader commercial activities across the region.
The regional analysis highlights that gas-fired generation will retain its pivotal position within sub-Saharan Africa's energy mix. However, fulfilling this growing requirement depends heavily on the synchronisation of fuel supply chains, power generation capacity, transmission networks, and cross-border electricity trade. Physical deliverability constraints, domestic fuel shortages, and financial vulnerabilities—specifically regarding payment discipline and contract structures—threaten to impede sector progress. While regional trade offers a pathway to bolster system flexibility and optimise resources, mitigating these commercial risks remains essential for long-term energy security.
Furthermore, systemic pressures are mounting as rising demand from industrial operations and selective growth in digital infrastructure confront existing structural limitations. The findings indicate that the central test for the region will be whether gas availability, midstream investments, and cross-border frameworks can develop at a commensurate pace. Without coordinated efforts to address these systemic hurdles, underlying consumption gains may outstrip the physical and financial capacity of regional grids.
Why it matters
For energy investors and regional policymakers, these projections underline the urgent need for coordinated midstream investments and robust domestic gas allocation frameworks. As industrialisation, urban migration, and emerging digital infrastructure place additional strains on existing grids, capital allocation must prioritise resolving transmission bottlenecks and payment security. Ensuring that fuel availability keeps pace with consumption growth is critical for turning West Africa's energy potential into reliable economic development, particularly as cross-border electricity markets seek to scale operations over the coming decade.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Grids decide whether generation becomes power that homes and businesses can rely on. Generation mix, transmission and distribution losses, and tariffs together shape reliability and the case for investment.
91.9% of people worldwide had electricity in 2024Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
