Renewables
Fossil fuel emissions projected to dip in 2026 amid energy shocks
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are set to fall slightly in 2026, driven by a drop in oil demand following geopolitical conflict.
Key points
- Fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes.
- The decline is largely attributed to a 1.9% drop in oil emissions caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Total emissions will still hit a record 43.3bn tonnes due to rising land-use emissions linked to El Niño.
What happened
Global carbon dioxide emissions originating from fossil fuels and cement production are expected to decrease by approximately 0.4% in 2026, bringing total fossil emissions to 38.2bn tonnes, according to the latest figures from the Global Carbon Project reported by Carbon Brief.
This projected reduction is primarily tied to a 1.9% decline in oil emissions. Researchers point to the energy shock resulting from the conflict involving Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a major catalyst, which pushed fuel prices higher across major economies.
Despite the dip in fossil fuels, overall global emissions are projected to reach a record high of 43.3bn tonnes of CO2 in 2026. This increase is driven by a rise in land-use emissions, such as deforestation and peat fires in south-east Asia, exacerbated by a strong El Niño event.
What comes next
While the report notes that 40 countries have successfully reduced emissions while growing their economies over the past decade, current deployment rates of renewable energy and electric vehicles are not yet sufficient to trigger a sustained global decline.
Researchers estimate that the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5C stands at 150bn tonnes from the beginning of 2027. This leaves a narrow window equivalent to less than four years of current emission levels.
Why it matters
For African energy markets and investors, fluctuations in global oil supply and pricing underscore the vulnerability of fossil-dependent systems to geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. With Brent spot prices recorded at 107.03 US dollars per barrel by the US EIA in November 2026, African producers face volatile market conditions that directly impact export revenues and macroeconomic stability.
At the same time, the ongoing expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles globally highlights the shifting long-term demand dynamics for hydrocarbons. Policymakers across the continent must navigate these shifting global consumption patterns while balancing domestic energy access requirements against international climate targets.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Renewables are the fastest-growing part of the world’s energy system. The COP28 goal is to triple capacity by 2030, and solar mini-grids are the fastest route to power for millions of people without electricity.
4.2% of electricity in Iran was renewable in 2021Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
