Renewables
Fossil fuel emissions flatline as conflict accelerates energy shift
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to flatline in 2026, driven by conflict-induced oil price spikes and a rapid expansion of renewables.
Key points
- Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are forecast to drop by about 0.4% this year, according to the Global Carbon Budget assessment.
- Oil emissions are expected to fall by 2% as consumers economise and adopt electric vehicles amid high prices from the Iran war.
- Scientists warn the trend is fragile and insufficient to prevent the world from breaching the 1.5C global warming threshold.
What happened
Global carbon dioxide emissions originating from oil, gas and coal are projected to flatline this year, according to a comprehensive assessment presented at the Cop31 climate talks in Antalya. The Guardian reported that soaring energy prices, triggered by the war in Iran, have spurred consumers to economise and shift toward electric vehicles. Consequently, emissions from burning oil alone are expected to drop by 2% in 2026.
The findings, published in Earth System Science Data, indicate that overall fossil fuel emissions will decline by approximately 0.4% compared to the previous year. However, analysts cautioned that this slight reduction is largely offset by rising emissions from deforestation and land-use changes in regions such as south-east Asia. Total carbon emissions are therefore forecast to increase slightly from 42.8bn tonnes last year to 43.3bn tonnes in 2026.
Researchers emphasized that a single year of plateauing emissions does not constitute a permanent structural peak. While solar and wind generation continue to expand rapidly, countering growing global energy demand, countries like India have continued to increase their coal consumption. Furthermore, policymakers in nations including the United States, Canada and New Zealand have faced criticism for rolling back climate policies or supporting new fossil fuel developments.
Why it matters
For energy investors and policymakers in Africa, the shifting dynamics of global fossil fuel demand highlight the growing commercial viability of low-carbon technologies. With international crude benchmarks remaining elevated—such as Brent spot prices reaching 107.03 US$ per barrel on 3 November 2026, according to US EIA data—African nations face both fiscal pressures on imported petroleum products and a compelling economic rationale to accelerate domestic renewable energy deployment.
While global energy markets adjust to geopolitical disruptions, the imperative for structural transitions becomes more urgent. The remaining global carbon budget stands at roughly 150bn tonnes, limiting room for continued high-carbon pathways. For Nigeria and other resource-rich developing economies, balancing traditional hydrocarbon revenues with long-term investments in clean energy infrastructure remains a critical strategic challenge as international climate scrutiny intensifies at forums like Cop31.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Renewables are the fastest-growing part of the world’s energy system. The COP28 goal is to triple capacity by 2030, and solar mini-grids are the fastest route to power for millions of people without electricity.
4.2% of electricity in Iran was renewable in 2021Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
