Gas
Sub-Saharan Africa gas poised for breakout growth
Sub-Saharan Africa is emerging as a critical frontier for global gas, driven by new export projects, domestic demand, and geopolitical shifts.
Key points
- Gas accounts for 25 percent of global primary energy supply, but only 17 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Global LNG construction totals around 250 million tons per annum, pointing to a potential supply glut by 2029.
- Nigeria and Mozambique are positioned as major LNG and domestic gas supply hubs.
What happened
According to a report published by Banking Biz, Sub-Saharan Africa's gas sector is approaching a material break-out. While gas makes up 25 percent of the world's primary energy supply, it represents just 17 percent of primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa, excluding North Africa.
Globally, around 250 million tons per annum of liquefied natural gas is under construction, which may lead to a supply glut between 2029 and 2030. This trend requires new sources of demand and creates opportunities for geographic diversification, particularly in light of disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters
Sub-Saharan Africa holds significant potential to supply international markets outside traditional energy chokepoints. Nigeria's federally mandated Decade of Gas has accelerated since 2023 following the introduction of multiple federal executive orders designed to improve fiscal terms. These measures aim to boost production, fill the Nigeria LNG facility—which is set to reach 30 million tons per annum capacity by 2027—and lift domestic supply toward a 12 billion cubic feet per day target by 2030.
Meanwhile, Mozambique is advancing its LNG projects following earlier delays. With Coral South operational and additional developments under construction, Mozambique could reach approximately 80 million tons per annum capacity by 2034, potentially emerging as a regional pathfinder for energy integration. Other markets, including Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Namibia, Tanzania, and South Africa, are also scaling up gas-to-power initiatives and domestic infrastructure.
What comes next
Unlocking the continent's gas potential will rely heavily on coordinated infrastructure development and innovative financing. Experts note that upcoming decisions across various Sub-Saharan markets over the next few years will shape the energy landscape through the 2030s, supporting both regional energy security and economic growth.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Gas is the flexible backbone of many grids and the designated transition fuel in many national plans, from LNG trade to domestic LPG and CNG. Supply security and pricing drive both power reliability and emissions.
21.9% of electricity in the world came from gas in 2024Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
