Oil
Persian Gulf oil supply recovers as shipping risks keep prices high
Crude oil volumes from the Persian Gulf have nearly recovered to pre-war levels, yet geopolitical risk premiums continue to inflate global prices.
Key points
- Persian Gulf crude volumes reach 91 per cent of pre-war averages.
- Front-month Brent futures remain elevated at $110 per barrel due to shipping risks.
- Higher transport costs and security threats add a risk premium of at least $20 per barrel.
Supply normalization
Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded significantly, reaching 91 per cent of their pre-war averages, according to analysis published on Substack by Robin J Brooks. This recovery has occurred despite a blockade on Iranian exports and ongoing security concerns, largely supported by United States Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi shipments have similarly exceeded pre-war baselines by 10 per cent.
The shipping risk premium
Despite the steady flow of physical supply, front-month Brent futures recently reached $110 per barrel. For broader market context, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded the Brent spot price at US$126.55 per barrel on 14 October 2026. According to the reporting, the disconnect between supply and price stems from spiked maritime transport costs following attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline and subsequent threats by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Strait of Hormuz. These security incidents have embedded a temporary risk premium of at least $20 per barrel into global benchmarks.
Outlook for markets
Analysts suggest that oil prices could fall toward $90 per barrel if maritime security is fully restored. However, political hesitation by the United States to aggressively counter IRGC attacks ahead of midterm elections has left the fear factor intact, preventing broader price normalization across international markets.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
