Gas
European gas prices hover near 2022 highs on constrained LNG supply
European natural gas prices remain near late 2022 levels as limited Middle East liquefied natural gas supply complicates winter storage preparations.
Key points
- Dutch Title Transfer Facility front-month prices reached $96.56 per megawatt-hour.
- EU storage sites were 74% full as of October 14, below the 86% five-year average.
- LNG flows from the Middle East are reported to be about 80% lower than last year's volumes.
What happened
European benchmark natural gas prices are maintaining levels close to their highest points since late 2022, according to Oilprice.com and IndexBox reporting. The front-month contract at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility traded at 86.03 euros, or $96.56, per megawatt-hour. Prices experienced a minor 1% dip following a decline in crude oil futures.
Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicates that European Union storage sites were 74% full as of October 14. This storage level sits below the five-year average of approximately 86% ahead of the heating season.
Why it matters
The persistence of high prices stems from constrained liquefied natural gas supply from the Middle East, which has not recovered at the same rate as oil flows. ING Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson noted in a market update that Persian Gulf LNG volumes remain roughly 80% lower compared to last year.
Analysts suggest that Persian Gulf LNG may stay absent from global markets through much of the Northern Hemisphere winter. This absence forces Europe and Asia into continued competition for spot LNG supplies, keeping regional markets vulnerable to price volatility.
What comes next
Consultancy Timera Energy warns of potential late-winter price spikes if European reserves become depleted. Their winter outlook assumes that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed through the final quarter of 2026 before seeing a gradual reopening in early 2027. Colder weather conditions in Europe or Asia could trigger further price escalations under these supply constraints.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Gas is the flexible backbone of many grids and the designated transition fuel in many national plans, from LNG trade to domestic LPG and CNG. Supply security and pricing drive both power reliability and emissions.
21.9% of electricity in the world came from gas in 2024Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
