Gas
Africa's LNG exports set for major growth as global buyers pivot
Sub-Saharan Africa is emerging as a critical global natural gas frontier, with exports projected to surge significantly over the next decade as international buyers diversify away from Middle Eastern supply routes.
Key points
- Sub-Saharan Africa's LNG exports are forecast by Fitch to reach 98 billion cubic meters by 2034.
- Nigeria's Decade of Gas initiative and the NLNG Train 7 expansion aim to scale domestic supply and export capacity.
- Upstream hydrocarbon capital across Africa is projected by the African Energy Chamber to hit roughly $40 billion annually through 2030.
What happened
Global energy purchasers seeking alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly looking toward African gas projects. According to OilPrice reporting, the African Energy Chamber projects that the continent's upstream sector will attract approximately $40 billion annually through 2030, raising hydrocarbon output to 12.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Countries such as Nigeria, Mozambique, Angola, Libya, and the Ivory Coast are securing major shares of this investment.
Fitch forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa's liquefied natural gas exports will surge by nearly 175 percent, reaching 98 billion cubic meters by 2034, up from 35.7 billion cubic meters in 2024. This growth is supported by expanding infrastructure, floating LNG deployments, and large uncommitted gas reserves located outside traditional Middle Eastern chokepoints. At the same time, regional demand for natural gas is projected to climb by 60 percent by 2050.
Regional developments
Nigeria is advancing major natural gas and LNG infrastructure expansions under its Decade of Gas strategic framework. The federal government has introduced competitive fiscal frameworks focused on Non-Associated Gas developments in onshore and shallow offshore fields to boost domestic availability. Meanwhile, the Nigeria LNG Train 7 expansion is scheduled to elevate the company's total production capacity to 30 million tonnes per annum starting in 2027. This follows the execution of long-term gas supply agreements by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and its upstream partners.
Other African nations are also advancing frontier basins. Mozambique is experiencing a sector resurgence, with TotalEnergies resuming work on its $20 billion Mozambique LNG project and Eni advancing its Coral North floating LNG initiative. In West Africa, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project shared by Senegal and Mauritania achieved commercial operations following its first cargo shipment, while Namibia and Tanzania continue to progress major offshore discoveries and large-scale liquefaction terminals.
Why it matters
For policymakers and energy investors in Nigeria and across the wider African continent, this structural shift presents a significant opportunity to monetize vast hydrocarbon reserves while supplying critical energy security to international markets. Natural gas accounts for only 17 percent of primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa, well below the global average of 25 percent, indicating substantial room for domestic expansion alongside export growth. As global markets react to shifting geopolitical landscapes, reflected in recent US benchmark energy indicators such as Henry Hub gas spot prices hovering at 2.63 US dollars per MMBtu in November 2026, African producers are well-positioned to integrate deeper into global supply chains. Aligning domestic fiscal reforms with international capital will remain essential to transforming these vast resources into enduring economic growth.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Gas is the flexible backbone of many grids and the designated transition fuel in many national plans, from LNG trade to domestic LPG and CNG. Supply security and pricing drive both power reliability and emissions.
21.9% of electricity in the world came from gas in 2024Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
