Gas
Global LNG expansion may create market glut by 2029
Sub-Saharan African nations could emerge as vital new demand centers as global liquefied natural gas capacity increases.
Key points
- Global LNG capacity under construction is set to trigger a market surplus starting in 2029.
- Countries such as South Africa, Kenya, Ivory Coast, and Namibia are viewed as prospective import markets.
- Infrastructure investments remain necessary for African buyers to utilize the incoming supply.
What happened
A projected surge in international liquefied natural gas output could result in a market surplus lasting up to three years beginning in 2029, Business Day reported from the Africa Energy Week conference in Cape Town. Paul Eardley-Taylor, who leads the gas sector division at Standard Bank Group, indicated that roughly 250 million tonnes of annual capacity is currently being built worldwide, driven largely by the United States alongside contributions from Mozambique.
Why it matters
With global producers seeking alternative buyers, sub-Saharan African nations including South Africa, Kenya, Ivory Coast, and Namibia are positioned as prospective import markets. South Africa has outlined intentions to broaden gas-based power generation, while Ivory Coast has finalized a decade-long arrangement with Belgian infrastructure firm Exmar for a floating storage and regasification unit to handle rising electricity demand.
Furthermore, supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz emphasize the necessity of diversifying transport routes. Eardley-Taylor noted that Nigeria and Mozambique could supply significant volumes bypassing traditional maritime chokepoints, with Mozambique anticipating a final investment decision for the Rovuma project late in 2026 and Nigeria planning capacity expansions from 2027.
What comes next
Realizing these market opportunities depends heavily on regional infrastructure development. Eardley-Taylor cautioned that new supplies will not automatically yield affordable prices or feasible projects without dedicated terminals, pipelines, and financing.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Gas is the flexible backbone of many grids and the designated transition fuel in many national plans, from LNG trade to domestic LPG and CNG. Supply security and pricing drive both power reliability and emissions.
15.3% of electricity in Mozambique came from gas in 2024Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
