Oil
Russian crude exports projected to decline as diesel processing rises
Preliminary schedules indicate Russian crude shipments from western ports may drop by up to 200,000 barrels per day in November.
Key points
- Crude shipments from Baltic and Black Sea ports are expected to fall by 100,000 to 200,000 bpd.
- Refineries have ramped up processing following a recent bilateral agreement between Washington and Moscow.
- Declining domestic production and infrastructure constraints present ongoing hurdles for Russian exporters.
What happened
Russian crude oil exports originating from western ports are anticipated to experience a notable reduction in November. According to preliminary loading schedules reviewed by Reuters, shipments could decrease by as much as 200,000 barrels per day. Traders indicate that volumes leaving Baltic and Black Sea terminals are projected to decline by 100,000 to 200,000 bpd compared to October levels.
This shift is driven by domestic refiners increasing their processing rates to produce higher volumes of diesel. The adjustment follows a bilateral agreement struck in October between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, alongside the easing of certain American restrictions on Russian fuel exports. Moscow has subsequently introduced new export quotas for diesel following earlier domestic shortages.
Operational challenges
Despite the policy shift enabling higher diesel output, Russian petroleum operations face significant structural headwinds. Domestic crude production has followed a downward trajectory, with OPEC secondary sources recording September output at 8.64 million barrels per day, marking the tenth consecutive monthly decrease. Furthermore, Moscow adjusted its broader production outlook downward in September to a seventeen-year low.
Seaborne crude shipments were already under pressure through October, affected by temporary loading suspensions at Primorsk and persistent shipping bottlenecks at Novorossiysk due to security threats in the Black Sea. Analysts note that potential security incidents targeting refining infrastructure could disrupt processing schedules, potentially leaving surplus crude available for export that would otherwise have been converted into diesel.
Why it matters
Shifts in major Eurasian supply volumes carry meaningful implications for global crude balances, particularly during periods of elevated international pricing. Benchmark indicators such as Brent spot prices at 115.22 US dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at 107.89 US dollars per barrel, recorded by the US Energy Information Administration in October 2026, highlight an already tightly supplied global market. For international energy investors and African producers, alterations in Russian export flows and refined product strategies directly influence trade routes and pricing dynamics across international markets.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
43.1% of Russia’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2021Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
