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Oil prices diverge amid Russian diesel relief and Saudi supply risks

Global oil benchmarks diverged as markets weighed a temporary U.S. waiver on Russian diesel against ongoing Middle East security concerns.

By the CEII Desk, from reporting by Yahoo Finance and WSJ

Key points

  • Brent crude futures declined nearly 1.5 percent while WTI futures gained over 2 percent.
  • The U.S. administration temporarily eased restrictions to allow Russian diesel supplies for six months.
  • Saudi Arabia reported resilient energy operations despite recent security threats and Houthi attacks.

What happened

Global oil prices moved in opposite directions on Tuesday as traders weighed competing supply pressures. Brent crude futures fell nearly 1.5 percent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained more than 2 percent, according to Yahoo Finance reporting. The divergence followed a U.S. decision to temporarily ease restrictions on Russian diesel shipments for six months.

According to Yahoo Finance, President Donald Trump defended the move on Truth Social, stating it served American interests in light of European Union energy purchases. The policy shift aims to introduce additional fuel into global markets, though critics from both political parties argued it could weaken sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine.

Why it matters

At the same time, markets continued to monitor security risks in the Middle East. Yahoo Finance reported that Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman affirmed the kingdom's energy supply system remains resilient during the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh. The comments followed Houthi militant attacks targeting infrastructure in Riyadh.

Despite security disruptions, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline last month with flows exceeding 80 percent of capacity. State-run Saudi Aramco has also increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing total oil exports close to prewar levels in September.

What comes next

Market participants remain divided on the near-term price outlook. While some traders view potential Russian diesel inflows and a possible end to conflicts as downward pressures on prices, others point to ongoing Middle East tensions and refinery outages as persistent threats to global energy supplies.

Original reporting

This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.

Context from CEII

Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.

78.7% of Saudi Arabia’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025

Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.

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