Oil
OPEC projects 2.6m BPD oil demand growth for 2027
OPEC has raised its 2027 global oil demand forecast, pointing to inventory replenishment and consumption recovery following earlier drawdowns.
Key points
- Global oil demand is projected to reach 108.3 million bpd in 2027.
- Inventory rebuilding will drive demand as commercial stocks sit below historical averages.
- Non-DoC supply is anticipated to lag behind the projected consumption growth.
What happened
According to OilPrice reporting, Opec anticipates global oil demand to expand by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027, contrasting sharply with an estimated increase of 200,000 bpd for the current year. Total world consumption is expected to climb from 105.7 million bpd this year to 108.3 million bpd in the coming year.
Why it matters
The projected surge in consumption is driven partly by the need to restock depleted reserves rather than solely by consumer usage. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development commercial inventories were notably lower than the 2015 to 2019 baseline in August, while product stocks also fell short of historical benchmarks. Gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel are anticipated to spearhead the product recovery.
What comes next
Production outside the Declaration of Cooperation framework is projected to grow by 600,000 bpd next year, supplemented by roughly 100,000 bpd from natural gas liquids and alternative sources. Meanwhile, requirements for DoC crude are expected to climb by 1.8 million bpd, reaching 43.9 million bpd in 2027.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
