Oil
Nigeria's nine-month oil output dips despite quota compliance
Nigeria produced 450.17 million barrels of crude and condensate between January and September 2026, marking a year-on-year decline despite meeting its OPEC quota for five consecutive months.
Key points
- Nigeria's crude and condensate production dropped by 7.48 million barrels in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
- Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows September crude output averaged 1.53 million barrels per day, meeting 102 per cent of the OPEC quota.
- The NUPRC attributed the September rebound to stable operations and a lack of major pipeline outages.
What happened
Nigeria recorded a total crude oil and condensate production of 450.17 million barrels between January and September 2026, according to figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported by Punch Newspapers. This represents a 1.63 per cent decrease compared to the 457.65 million barrels produced during the corresponding period in 2025.
Despite the overall year-on-year decline, September output rebounded, allowing the country to meet or exceed its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries quota for the fifth consecutive month. Pure crude oil production averaged 1.53 million barrels per day in September, reaching 102 per cent of the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC target. Daily production peaked at 1.84 million barrels during the month, with a low of 1.68 million barrels.
Why it matters
Fuel exports account for 85.9 per cent of Nigeria's merchandise exports, according to 2025 World Bank data, making production volumes critical for foreign exchange earnings and macroeconomic stability. While the NUPRC noted that September's daily average rose to 1.717 million barrels per day when including condensates, the nine-month contraction highlights the ongoing structural challenges in maintaining consistent output growth across upstream assets.
What comes next
The NUPRC stated that the September performance was driven by stable operations and the absence of major pipeline disruptions. Sustaining these operational gains will be essential for the country to maintain its quota compliance and reverse the broader production decline moving toward the end of the year.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
85.9% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
