Oil
IEA reports sharp drop in African and Southeast Asian oil demand
The International Energy Agency highlights how Middle Eastern conflict disrupts emerging-market fuel consumption.
Key points
- African oil consumption contracted by 2.5% year-on-year between March and August.
- Nigerian demand fell by 150,000 b/d in July, according to the IEA.
- South America remained resilient due to lower dependence on Middle Eastern supplies.
Supply disruptions impact consumption
Oil demand in Africa and Southeast Asia has declined significantly following the onset of the Middle East war, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Disrupted trade flows, tighter fuel supplies, and elevated prices have placed pressure on consumption in import-dependent regions.
In its October Oil Market Report, the IEA noted that Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America accounted for approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of oil demand in 2025. However, tracking trends remains difficult due to limited timely reporting across emerging economies.
Regional impacts
Africa experienced a sharp reversal from prewar growth. Following an estimated demand expansion of 3.4% in the twelve months preceding the conflict, regional consumption contracted by 2.5% year-on-year from March to August. The continent's reliance on imported refined products, such as diesel and gasoline, increased its vulnerability.
Nigerian oil demand dropped by 150,000 barrels per day, or nearly 30%, year-on-year in July. Meanwhile, trade patterns shifted toward lower imports and higher product exports, including middle distillate shipments from Nigeria. Egypt saw a demand reduction of 110,000 barrels per day in the second quarter.
In contrast, South American oil demand rose by 1.9% year-on-year during the same March-August period. The region proved less vulnerable to Middle Eastern disruptions as most of its crude and refined products originate in the Atlantic Basin.
Outlook
The IEA projects that Nigerian consumption will decline by nearly 60,000 barrels per day in 2026 to 470,000 barrels per day, before staging a recovery in 2027. Divergent global trends highlight the heightened vulnerability of import-dependent economies during international supply crises.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
