Oil
Gulf oil flows to India surpass Russian supplies
Persian Gulf crude exports to India have overtaken Russian volumes for the first time since the onset of the Iran conflict, driven by recovering traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Key points
- Indian crude imports from the Persian Gulf reached 2.1 million barrels per day this month, exceeding Russian volumes of 1.8 million barrels.
- Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz recovered following a severe drop earlier in the year caused by security incidents.
- Competitive pricing from Middle Eastern suppliers and rising freight costs for Russian cargoes influenced the market shift.
What happened
Crude oil deliveries from the Persian Gulf to India have surpassed imports from Russia, according to data from Kpler cited by Rigzone. This shift marks the first time Gulf supplies have overtaken Russian volumes since the beginning of the conflict involving the United States and Iran.
Shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 2.1 million barrels daily, outpacing the 1.8 million barrels per day coming from Russia. Earlier in the year, flows through this critical Middle Eastern chokepoint plummeted following security attacks on maritime traffic. However, shuttle operations by tankers have enabled key producers to restore export volumes toward pre-war figures.
Combined daily exports from major Middle Eastern producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, recovered to approximately 15.53 million barrels in October. Meanwhile, Russian overseas shipments experienced a slight decline to 3.63 million barrels daily over a four-week period ending November 8, constrained by ongoing attacks on domestic energy infrastructure and higher logistical expenses.
Market dynamics
Economic factors heavily influenced the redirection of trade routes. Suppliers in the Middle East presented attractive pricing structures and utilized shuttle tankers to move petroleum outside the restricted waterway before transferring cargoes to buyers. Conversely, Russian crude faced economic disadvantages due to elevated freight tariffs and extended maritime transit times, prompting Indian refiners to revert to traditional trade partners.
Why it matters
Global energy markets remain acutely sensitive to chokepoint disruptions and geopolitical shifts, which directly influence international pricing benchmarks. On November 11, the US Energy Information Administration recorded Brent spot prices at 92.14 US dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at 89.62 US dollars per barrel. For African producers and international investors, the recovery of Persian Gulf supply chains demonstrates how quickly trade routes adapt under pressure, altering competitive dynamics in major consumer markets such as India.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
13.1% of India’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
