Oil
OPEC forecasts near-doubling of African oil demand by 2050
OPEC projects that Africa's oil demand will approach 9.2 million barrels per day by 2050, driven by rapid population growth and urbanisation.
Key points
- Africa's population is projected to grow from over 1.5 billion in 2025 to nearly 2.5 billion by 2050.
- African oil demand is expected to rise from 4.9 million barrels per day in 2025 to 9.2 million barrels per day by 2050.
- The transport sector is anticipated to account for nearly 60 percent of the total demand increase.
What happened
According to the 20th edition of the World Oil Outlook released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Africa's energy demand is set for substantial growth over the coming decades. Pan African Visions reported that Dr. Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of the Energy Studies Department at OPEC, presented the findings at African Energy Week 2026 in Cape Town.
Global primary energy demand is projected to climb from 312 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to nearly 383 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2050. Growth will be concentrated in developing regions, propelled by a continental population surge from 1.5 billion in 2025 to approximately 2.5 billion by 2050.
Growth drivers across sectors
African oil demand is forecast to expand by roughly 88 percent, moving from 4.9 million barrels per day in 2025 to 9.2 million barrels per day by mid-century. Urbanisation, industrial expansion, and transport development underpin this trajectory, with the transport sector alone driving nearly 60 percent of the additional demand. Petrochemicals, other industries, and electricity generation will account for the remainder.
Natural gas demand across the continent is also projected to double. Meanwhile, renewable energy sources—including hydro, wind, solar, and biomass—will experience significant uptake, with biomass comprising the majority of that segment's expansion. Coal demand is anticipated to see only marginal growth, while nuclear energy remains limited.
Global energy shifts
Globally, total electricity generation is expected to nearly double from approximately 32,000 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 59,500 terawatt-hours in 2050. Wind and solar technologies are projected to lead the generation mix, scaling from 5,400 terawatt-hours to 26,000 terawatt-hours over the 25-year period to meet rising needs across residential, commercial, industrial, transport, and data centre sectors.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
