Oil
Transport costs drive divergent food inflation trends across Nigeria
Rising transport expenses are keeping food prices high in several Nigerian states despite the current harvest season, according to the All Farmers Association of Nigeria.
Key points
- Lagos, Imo and Ondo recorded the highest year-on-year food price rises in September 2026.
- Taraba, Yobe and Borno posted the mildest inflation rates, with Taraba recording a negative rate.
- AFAN president Mohammed Magaji attributes regional disparities directly to logistics and transport costs.
What happened
Food inflation across Nigeria presented a varied picture in September 2026, driven largely by the heavy cost of moving produce from farms to consumer markets. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and reported by Punch, Lagos recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rate in the country at 34.40 per cent. Imo followed closely at 33.79 per cent, while Ondo registered 31.49 per cent.
Lagos also maintained the highest overall food price level index at 178.0, measured against a 2024 base period of 100. Rivers and Oyo followed as the next most expensive states. Conversely, northern states posted much milder figures. Taraba recorded a negative food inflation rate of 7.47 per cent, indicating that prices were lower than they were twelve months prior. Yobe and Borno also experienced minimal or negative price growth.
Mohammed Magaji, President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, explained in the Punch report that logistics remain the primary driver of these disparities. He noted that states producing the bulk of agricultural commodities, such as Taraba, experience smaller price increases because shorter travel distances shield consumers from high logistics expenses.
Why it matters
High transportation costs remain a major structural bottleneck for the Nigerian economy, directly linking energy prices to food security. With diesel spot prices recorded at 4.844 US dollars per gallon on the US Gulf Coast in mid-October 2026, and domestic fuel supply costs heavily influencing local distribution, agricultural supply chains face severe cost pressures.
For policymakers and energy investors, the reliance on road transport for food distribution highlights the vulnerability of domestic markets to energy price volatility. Without efficient transport infrastructure and alternative energy sources for cold storage and processing hubs, food inflation will continue to diverge sharply between producing and consuming states across the country.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
85.9% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
