Power
South Africa balances renewable expansion with storage challenges
South Africa is steering towards a renewable-heavy power mix, but grid bottlenecks and flat pumped storage capacity pose hurdles for the transition.
Key points
- Renewable capacity is forecast to overtake thermal generation in South Africa by 2031.
- Pumped storage capacity is expected to remain static at 2.91GW through the next decade.
- Transmission constraints are restricting new wind and solar connections across key regions.
What happened
South Africa's energy landscape is undergoing a structural transformation under the Integrated Resource Plan 2025 and recent market reforms. According to reports from ESI Africa and Power Technology, the country's installed generation capacity stands at 74.6GW, with coal accounting for 48.8GW at the end of 2025. While coal output remains substantial, the national energy plan outlines a phased retirement of older units starting around 2029.
Simultaneously, renewable energy additions are projected to scale up significantly, with solar photovoltaic and wind capacity leading the expansion. However, storage capacity is not keeping pace with the rapid influx of intermittent renewables. GlobalData figures indicate that the country's pumped storage fleet will remain at 2.91GW throughout the decade, with no major additions anticipated before the 1.5GW Tubatse pumped storage scheme slated for 2038. Instead, near-term storage growth relies primarily on battery projects, backed by procurement programmes designed to ease grid congestion.
Grid and market constraints
Transmission limitations continue to restrict the deployment of new clean energy assets. Grid capacity shortages have already forced procurement rounds to redirect allocations exclusively to solar PV where wind connections were unavailable. Although market reforms such as the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act aim to introduce competitive trading, initial implementation challenges remain as regulatory frameworks and wholesale market operations take shape.
Why it matters
South Africa's transition highlights the complex engineering and financial hurdles African nations face when shifting away from baseload thermal power. With electricity use per person standing at 3,308.2 kWh in 2024 according to World Bank figures, reliable grid management is critical to supporting industrial and domestic demand. For investors and policymakers across the continent, the South African experience underscores that scaling renewable generation without parallel investments in transmission networks and flexible storage risks severe reserve margin tightening during peak demand periods.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Grids decide whether generation becomes power that homes and businesses can rely on. Generation mix, transmission and distribution losses, and tariffs together shape reliability and the case for investment.
90.2% of people in South Africa had electricity in 2024Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
