Gas
Gas transit shocks delay impending global LNG glut
Disruptions in the Middle East have tightened gas markets and delayed an anticipated liquefied natural gas surplus, according to Offshore Technology.
Key points
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage at Ras Laffan restricted major LNG supplies.
- GlobalData forecasts an LNG surplus peaking in 2029 before tightening in the 2030s.
- Future market balance depends heavily on developing export routes rather than gas reserves.
What happened
According to Offshore Technology, the global gas market faced severe transit disruptions in early 2026. The de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz restricted around a fifth of international liquefied natural gas supplies, while March strikes at Ras Laffan damaged Qatari export infrastructure. These incidents forced Asian buyers to compete directly with Europe for North American cargoes, pushing up European benchmark prices while US Henry Hub prices declined due to capacity constraints.
Why it matters
GlobalData's market outlook indicates that the supply shock has postponed a projected LNG glut. World supply growth slowed significantly, leaving an estimated 38 to 59 billion cubic metres of demand unmet. Although a substantial construction pipeline is expected to bring over 281 million tonnes per annum online by 2031, market analysts project the resulting surplus will fade by the mid-2030s as global demand continues to rise.
What comes next
Long-term market tightness will depend heavily on infrastructure development rather than raw resource availability. Asset-level modelling shows sufficient global gas reserves, but several new offshore provinces in nations such as Senegal, Tanzania, and Cyprus currently lack sanctioned export routes. Meanwhile, US liquefaction facilities will require significantly more uncommitted gas production to sustain operations into the next decade.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Gas is the flexible backbone of many grids and the designated transition fuel in many national plans, from LNG trade to domestic LPG and CNG. Supply security and pricing drive both power reliability and emissions.
21.9% of electricity in the world came from gas in 2024Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
