Renewables
Sub-Saharan Africa solar outlook jumps on decentralized demand
The International Energy Agency has raised its sub-Saharan Africa renewable forecast by 54 percent, driven by distributed rooftop and off-grid solar systems.
Key points
- IEA upgrades sub-Saharan Africa renewable outlook by 54% through 2031.
- Distributed solar systems expected to add 42GW amidst grid unreliability.
- South Africa and Nigeria projected to drive nearly half of new regional capacity.
What happened
International Energy Agency projections published on November 6 show a significant upward revision for sub-Saharan Africa's renewable energy growth through 2031, according to Energy News Network reporting. The updated outlook represents a 54 percent increase compared to previous assessments, with solar power expected to constitute the vast majority of upcoming installations.
Energy News Network noted that decentralized rooftop and off-grid technology investments by commercial entities and households fuel the upward adjustment. While expectations for large utility-scale installations experienced downward revisions, distributed installations are projected to reach 42GW. Nigeria and South Africa are anticipated to deliver roughly half of the total regional capacity additions during this timeframe.
Market drivers
Persistent electricity shortages and unreliable centralized grid networks serve as primary catalysts for consumers shifting toward self-generation. Financial constraints and inadequate transmission infrastructure continue to restrict the deployment of larger centralized generation assets.
IRENA figures indicate that the African continent incorporated 11.3GW of renewable capacity during 2025, expanding the total installed base by nearly 16 percent to reach 82,397MW. Globally, the IEA anticipates nearly 4,800GW of new renewable installations between 2026 and 2031. Fatih Birol observed that contemporary expansion is principally propelled by energy security concerns, as reported by Energy News Network.
Why it matters
For investors and policymakers across Nigeria and the wider region, the pivot toward decentralized solar highlights a structural shift in how power is procured and distributed. Persistent grid failures necessitate independent corporate and residential generation strategies, creating robust commercial opportunities for off-grid developers and equipment suppliers. With diesel spot prices remaining elevated at 4.525 US dollars per gallon on the US Gulf Coast as of November 2024 according to US EIA data, alternative distributed power sources offer crucial financial relief against fossil fuel volatility. Addressing regulatory frameworks and capital access will remain vital to sustaining this momentum across West Africa's primary energy markets.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Renewables are the fastest-growing part of the world’s energy system. The COP28 goal is to triple capacity by 2030, and solar mini-grids are the fastest route to power for millions of people without electricity.
27.8% of electricity in the world was renewable in 2021Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
