Oil
Saudi Arabia and Iraq boost oil output to war-time highs
Saudi Arabia and Iraq have significantly increased crude oil production, exerting downward pressure on global prices as the market adjusts to recovering Persian Gulf supplies.
Key points
- Saudi Arabia notified OPEC that its October crude output rose to 10.56 million barrels a day.
- Iraq reported a war-time high of nearly 4.9 million barrels a day.
- Brent oil futures declined roughly 21% over the month to trade at $93 a barrel.
What happened
According to Rigzone reporting citing a monthly report from the OPEC secretariat, Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production by 26% last month. The kingdom reached 10.56 million barrels a day in October, approaching pre-conflict levels seen in February. Iraq also informed the organization that its production rose to nearly 4.9 million barrels a day, exceeding its agreed limits.
The regional output recovery stems from successful efforts by Persian Gulf exporters to restore transport flows through covert shuttle runs in the Strait of Hormuz and the use of alternative pipelines. These rising volumes have coincided with constrained global consumption, driving Brent oil futures down by approximately 21% during the month to $93 a barrel. By comparison, US EIA data recorded the Brent spot price at $107.03 per barrel on November 3, 2026.
What comes next
The rising output numbers arrive ahead of an online meeting scheduled for November 29, where the full OPEC+ alliance will deliberate output targets for 2027. Members are currently reviewing maximum production capacity to help calibrate future quotas. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser stated at an industry conference in Abu Dhabi that the company aims to maximize production in the fourth quarter to help rebuild global inventories.
Why it matters
Shifts in Middle Eastern production volumes hold significant implications for global energy markets, pricing stability, and revenue generation for oil-dependent economies across Africa. While higher global supply helps ease inflationary pressures on refined products—such as diesel, which stood at $4.525 per gallon on the US Gulf Coast on November 3, 2026, according to US EIA figures—it also introduces volatility for emerging market producers balancing fiscal budgets against shifting commodity cycles. African policymakers and investors monitor these OPEC+ baseline adjustments closely as they signal potential trajectories for international crude benchmarks heading into 2027.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
78.7% of Saudi Arabia’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
