Oil
OPEC raises 2027 demand forecast as conflicts strain inventories
OPEC has lifted its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast while cutting its 2026 outlook, as the markets absorb ongoing supply disruptions.
Key points
- OPEC+ production reached 39.07 million barrels per day in September, driven by higher output from Saudi Arabia.
- Global oil demand is projected to grow by 2.55 million barrels per day in 2027 to average 108.3 million bpd.
- The 2026 demand growth estimate was lowered for the sixth consecutive month to 180,000 bpd.
What happened
According to reports from Reuters and Quartz, OPEC raised its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2027 on Tuesday. The upward revision is driven by the necessity for the global market to replenish inventories depleted by the ongoing conflict involving Iran and disruptions in the Middle East and Ukraine. At the same time, the producer group reduced its 2026 demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive month down to 180,000 barrels per day.
OPEC+ production saw a significant increase in September, reaching an average of 39.07 million barrels per day. This represented a gain of roughly 900,000 barrels per day compared to August. Saudi Arabia spearheaded the monthly increase, reporting an output of 8.372 million barrels per day after ramping up loadings from Gulf export terminals. Conversely, Russian production dipped by 38,000 barrels per day last month amid ongoing attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Why it matters
Global energy markets continue to face severe supply constraints following prolonged disruptions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Governments and energy companies have increasingly drawn down strategic and commercial reserves to offset these shortages. With Brent spot prices noted at 125.44 US dollars per barrel and WTI at 96.24 US dollars per barrel in early October according to US Energy Information Administration data, inventory levels remain a critical focus for market stability.
OPEC anticipates that next year's consumption will average 108.3 million barrels per day, a growth of 2.55 million barrels per day. However, analysts note divergence within the industry, as the International Energy Agency has maintained a more pessimistic outlook regarding demand trajectories for the current year.
What comes next
Core members of the OPEC+ alliance recently agreed to keep November production targets steady. As export limitations persist in the Gulf and ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to impact output ceilings, policymakers and investors will closely monitor inventory recovery rates and monthly production adjustments across major supplier nations.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
