Oil
OPEC+ output rises as Middle East tensions disrupt trade
OPEC+ crude production grew by 900,000 barrels per day in September despite regional shipping challenges.
Key points
- Combined OPEC+ production reached 39.07 million barrels per day in September.
- Saudi Arabia led the output expansion following direct communications data.
- Global crude prices increased alongside climbing tanker freight rates.
Production trends
According to the Monthly Oil Market Report published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on October 13, the wider bloc expanded its total crude output by 900,000 barrels per day during September, pushing average production to 39.07 million barrels per day. Egypt Oil & Gas reported that this expansion occurred despite persistent bottlenecks affecting vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
Secondary figures cited within the publication indicated that member nations within the organisation raised their collective output by 920,000 barrels per day to reach 25.10 million barrels per day. Conversely, participating non-member participants in the Declaration of Cooperation experienced a minor contraction of 20,000 barrels per day, settling at 13.97 million barrels per day.
Saudi output and pricing
Direct communications data highlighted that Saudi Arabia spearheaded the growth. The kingdom boosted its extraction volume to 8.37 million barrels per day in September, marking a substantial rise from the 6.24 million barrels per day registered in August. Market supply from the nation advanced by 866,000 barrels per day to total 7.99 million barrels per day.
Simultaneously, international crude values experienced upward pressure. The OPEC Reference Basket climbed by $24.15 per barrel to settle at an average of $110.59 per barrel. Brent futures advanced by $13.94 to reach $102.02 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained $13.24 to trade at $95.69 per barrel. The organisation attributed these valuations to geopolitical friction and strong demand for immediate supply.
Demand outlook
Looking ahead, the organisation adjusted its global demand growth projections for 2026 downward to 200,000 barrels per day, estimating overall consumption at 105.7 million barrels per day. A recovery is anticipated for 2027, with demand expected to climb by 2.6 million barrels per day to reach 108.3 million barrels per day.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
