Oil
OPEC reduces 2026 oil demand forecast amid Middle East conflict
OPEC lowers its global oil demand growth projection for 2026, citing ongoing maritime disruptions and regional geopolitical tensions.
Key points
- OPEC revised its 2026 demand growth projection down to roughly 200,000 barrels per day.
- Shipping disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea amid the ongoing conflict.
- Brent crude traded below $106 per barrel following earlier price spikes.
What happened
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced its global petroleum demand growth outlook for the remainder of 2026, according to reporting by The Hill. The group now expects demand to increase by approximately 200,000 barrels per day compared to the previous year. This figure marks a downward revision from September's projection of 400,000 barrels per day and August's forecast of 600,000 barrels per day.
In its monthly report, the organization pointed to geopolitical instability in the Middle East and regional crude flow bottlenecks as factors elevating front-month prices relative to forward contracts. CME Group also noted that the updated figures reflect reversed expectations for China.
Why it matters
Persistent military engagements involving Iran, alongside actions by the Houthi movement targeting vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman, have significantly restricted maritime trade. The International Energy Agency previously estimated that nearly 34 percent of globally traded crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year. Data cited by the World Trade Organization indicate that shipping through the key waterway remained heavily constrained through August.
Weekend strikes impacting Saudi Arabian infrastructure triggered upward pressure on energy markets, pushing international benchmark Brent crude to $107.33 per barrel on Monday, before retreating below $106 per barrel by Tuesday afternoon. North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate saw modest gains.
What comes next
Despite near-term shipping hurdles and demand adjustments for the current year, the producer group anticipates a rebound in consumption. OPEC adjusted its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast upward to roughly 2.6 million barrels per day, surpassing September's estimate of 2.4 million barrels per day.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
