Oil
Oil holds firm as regional supply rises, European gas vulnerable
Global crude prices remain resilient despite recovering flows from the Persian Gulf, while European natural gas markets face tight conditions heading into winter.
Key points
- Crude prices stay supported despite Persian Gulf flows returning to 70-90% of pre-war levels.
- Tanker freight rates hit record highs due to logistical inefficiencies in the region.
- European gas storage sits below the five-year average, supporting higher winter price forecasts.
Oil market dynamics
According to ING Think, crude oil prices have maintained their strength despite increasing output from the Persian Gulf. Regional flows have recovered to between 70 and 90 percent of pre-war volumes, yet markets continue pricing in a notable risk premium due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the absence of a formal agreement between the United States and Iran.
Analysts note that sustained uncertainty has kept fourth-quarter Brent forecasts at 80 US dollars per barrel, with projections easing to 71 US dollars per barrel for the 2027 financial year. Meanwhile, logistical bottlenecks have driven tanker freight rates to record levels as operations in the Persian Gulf remain inefficient.
European gas pressures
European natural gas markets face significant vulnerability as the heating season approaches. Unlike the oil sector, liquefied natural gas shipments from the Persian Gulf remain down by approximately 80 percent compared to the previous year, leaving Asian and European buyers competing for remaining spot cargoes.
Data from ING indicates that European storage levels are under 75 percent full, trailing the five-year average of 89 percent. This deficit prompted the German administration to direct SEFE to procure an additional 8TWh of gas ahead of mid-December. Consequently, winter price expectations have been revised upward, though milder weather patterns linked to El Nino could offer some relief to the market.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
