Oil
Oil prices climb amid Middle East supply concerns
Global crude prices have surged as ongoing Middle East unrest threatens supplies, though analysts project moderation by late 2026.
Key points
- Brent crude settled at $109.86 a barrel, marking its strongest close since May 19.
- US West Texas Intermediate reached $101.41 a barrel at settlement.
- Goldman Sachs projects Brent to average $80 a barrel in 2027 as supply fundamentals adjust.
What happened
Oil futures recorded sharp gains at Friday's settlement as traders evaluated the impact of Middle East unrest on global supplies alongside diesel flows from Russia, according to IndexBox reporting. Brent crude rose by $3.94 to settle at $109.86 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate increased by $3.44 to settle at $101.41 a barrel.
To ease supply pressures, the International Energy Agency approved releasing over 20 million barrels of fuel. Additionally, the US Department of Energy sought bids to exchange up to 17 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Why it matters
Physical prices remain elevated due to geopolitical risks and near-record-low global inventories, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Analysts note that spot prices incorporate a significant risk premium because potential escalations could target regional energy infrastructure. Concurrently, CEII data indicates Brent spot prices reached $126.55 per barrel on October 14, 2026.
What comes next
Goldman Sachs expects prices to moderate over the coming year as Middle East supply recovers and markets return to a surplus balance by late 2026 and 2027. Daan Struyven noted that continued adaptation by exporters will help reduce crude prices, though potential conflict escalations still pose upside risks.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
