Oil
Nigeria oil demand falls sharply amid Middle East conflict
Nigerian petroleum consumption dropped significantly in July as Middle East hostilities constrained global supply chains, according to the International Energy Agency.
Key points
- Nigerian oil consumption decreased by 150,000 barrels per day in July.
- The IEA projects a full-year demand reduction of nearly 60,000 b/d for Nigeria in 2026.
- Heavy reliance on imported refined products has heightened vulnerability across African markets.
According to Leadership reporting citing the International Energy Agency, domestic petroleum consumption in Nigeria contracted by nearly 30 per cent year-on-year during July. The reduction amounted to 150,000 barrels per day (b/d), driven by supply constraints and higher prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.
Demand projections and regional trends
The IEA anticipates that full-year Nigerian consumption will decrease by close to 60,000 b/d to reach 470,000 b/d over the course of 2026, with an equivalent rebound expected the following year. Across the broader African continent, consumption shifted from a growth trajectory of 3.4 per cent prior to the hostilities into a 2.5 per cent contraction between March and August. Analysts attribute this vulnerability to the region's strong dependence on imported refined products, particularly diesel and gasoline.
Wider market pressures
These supply bottlenecks coincide with elevated international benchmark prices. US Energy Information Administration figures recorded the Brent spot price at US$126.55 per barrel on 14 October 2026. For Nigeria, where fuel exports accounted for 85.9 per cent of merchandise exports in 2025 according to World Bank data, shifting trade flows have prompted a reorientation towards increased product exports alongside reduced import volumes.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
85.9% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
