Oil
NUPRC report details 2025 Nigerian oil theft and output
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has published its annual audit, revealing millions of barrels lost to illicit tapping alongside stable overall output.
Key points
- Reported crude theft reached 3.33 million barrels in 2025, heavily concentrated in the final quarter.
- Aggregate output across the year hit 541.08 million barrels of crude and blended condensate.
- Regulatory revenue collections dropped while asset protection expenditures escalated significantly.
What happened
Nigeria logged 3.33 million barrels of stolen petroleum during 2025, according to the annual audit released on Thursday by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), as reported by Nairametrics and The Punch. The documentation outlines upstream performance, domestic allocation, export volumes, and field development activities throughout the twelve-month period.
Quarterly tracking revealed stark divergences in illicit extractions across the year. The opening three months registered 896,471 barrels of losses, followed by an anomalous negative figure of 200,400 barrels in the second quarter driven by accounting reconciliations. Losses moderated further in the third quarter to 440,434 barrels before escalating sharply in the final period. The fourth quarter accounted for 2.19 million barrels, representing nearly 66 percent of the aggregate volume missing across the entire calendar year.
Despite these security challenges, aggregate output of crude oil and blended condensate reached 541.08 million barrels. Production held steady across quarters, ranging from 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter to a peak of 137.69 million barrels in the second quarter, 137.45 million barrels in the third, and 133.23 million barrels concluding the year. Furthermore, unblended condensate streams added another 48.52 million barrels to national totals. The commission also noted advancements in evaluating field development proposals intended to expand upstream capacity, with forty-eight approved projects slated to achieve initial production between 2026 and 2030, including seven initiatives dedicated entirely to non-associated gas.
Financial statements within the audit highlighted wider economic pressures. Regulatory revenue collections fell to N10.42 trillion, marking a 17.03 per cent reduction compared to the previous year, while the commission achieved 63 per cent of its projected financial target. Concurrently, the state oil company reported substantially higher financial commitments towards asset protection, outlaying N8.67 trillion for energy security interventions compared to approximately N3.1 trillion previously. Environmental data within the review noted 357 spill incidents, with roughly 49.5 per cent directly linked to sabotage.
Why it matters
The persistence of crude theft alongside escalating protection expenses poses a structural challenge for fiscal planning and investor sentiment. According to World Bank figures, fuel exports accounted for 85.9 per cent of merchandise exports in Nigeria in 2025, leaving the macroeconomic framework acutely sensitive to upstream volumetric losses. When substantial volumes fail to reach export terminals or domestic refineries, government revenues suffer direct contractions, as evidenced by the sharp drop in regulatory earnings. For energy investors and policymakers, bridging the gap between heavy security spending and physical asset protection remains vital to stabilising production targets and restoring predictable cash flows across the petroleum value chain.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
85.9% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
