Oil
Nigeria inflation projected to rise to 15.5% as oil prices climb
Nigeria's headline inflation rate is expected to tick upward to 15.5 percent in September, halting three consecutive months of declines according to BusinessDay estimates.
Key points
- BusinessDay's econometric model forecasts a 15.5 percent inflation rate for September.
- Central Bank of Nigeria governor Olayemi Cardoso described recent policy adjustments as a strategic reset rather than conventional easing.
- International Brent crude traded around $106 per barrel amid supply concerns, posing potential risks to domestic transport and distribution costs.
What happened
Nigeria faces a potential pause in its recent disinflation trajectory, with economic models projecting headline inflation to reach 15.5 percent for September. BusinessDay reported that this estimate represents a slight acceleration from the 15.39 percent recorded in August, ending three straight months of easing prices. The official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics are awaited.
Simultaneously, international crude prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, driven by supply concerns tied to Middle East tensions. Brent crude traded near $106 per barrel on October 13, according to BusinessDay. While higher crude values can boost foreign-exchange earnings, they also threaten to increase domestic fuel and transport expenses.
Why it matters
The shifting economic landscape coincides with monetary policy adjustments by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Following a Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the benchmark interest rate was adjusted from 26.5 percent to 23 percent. Governor Olayemi Cardoso emphasized that the 350-basis-point adjustment functioned as a strategic framework reset rather than an accommodative monetary easing stance.
Analysts note that a lower policy benchmark does not automatically translate to reduced borrowing costs for businesses and households. Lending rates remain influenced by broader market liquidity, commercial bank funding expenses, and credit risks.
What comes next
Policymakers must navigate the trade-off between export revenue gains and imported inflation pressures. The upcoming official release from the National Bureau of Statistics will clarify whether consumer price increases resumed in September. Meanwhile, broader economic outcomes will depend on exchange rate stability, food price movements, and how international energy costs affect domestic markets.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
8.8% of Ghana’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
