Oil
Nigeria crude output valued at n52.12tn over nine months
Nigeria produced an estimated 403 million barrels of crude oil valued at N52.12tn between January and September 2026, driven by higher international prices.
Key points
- Gross crude value reached approximately $39.15bn before conversion to naira at N1,331 per dollar.
- Monthly production volumes ranged from a low of 36.68 million barrels in February to 47.43 million barrels in May.
- Global price spikes following the US-Iran crisis pushed Bonny Light averages above budget assumptions.
Nigeria generated an estimated gross crude oil value of N52.12tn between January and September 2026, according to Central Bank of Nigeria figures cited by Punch Newspapers and Brand Icon Image. Total output reached approximately 403 million barrels across the nine-month timeframe.
Production and price trends
Calculations compiled using monthly averages of Bonny Light crude placed the cumulative dollar value at roughly $39.15bn, converted at an exchange rate of N1,331 per dollar. Production volumes fluctuated throughout the period, starting at 45.26 million barrels in January and dipping to 36.68 million barrels in February, before reaching a peak of 47.43 million barrels in May.
International price movements heavily influenced the nominal value of the output. Following the onset of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran in late February, Bonny Light prices climbed sharply, moving from $72.33 per barrel in February to $106.09 in March and peaking at $126.71 in April. Although prices moderated following a temporary ceasefire, subsequent instability pushed averages back to $117.12 per barrel in September.
Why it matters
The gross valuation highlights the nominal scale of Nigeria's upstream petroleum sector during a period of acute global market volatility. However, according to the source reports, these figures represent total production by state, international, and domestic operators rather than actual revenue received by the Federal Government, omitting deductions such as production costs, royalties, and taxes.
For energy investors and policymakers, the figures underscore the vulnerability of public finances to external price shocks. While the observed prices significantly exceeded the Federal Government's 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, actual production volumes remained below the targeted 1.8 million barrels per day. With fuel exports accounting for 85.9 percent of merchandise exports in 2025 according to World Bank figures, capturing the financial benefits of high global valuations continues to depend heavily on domestic production stability and effective fiscal frameworks.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
85.9% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
