Renewables
South Africa's heavy coal reliance strains its energy transition
South Africa continues to grapple with high emissions and structural economic challenges driven by its heavy reliance on coal-fired electricity and road freight.
Key points
- South Africa ranked 36th out of 203 countries globally for carbon emissions per person in 2024.
- Coal accounted for 80 percent of South Africa's electricity generation in 2025.
- Renewable energy costs for the grid have dropped significantly, prompting broader adoption despite resistance from legacy industries.
What happened
South Africa maintains some of the highest emission levels internationally, according to an analysis published by Business Day. In 2024, the country positioned 36th out of 203 nations regarding carbon emissions per person, while ranking 27th out of 199 for greenhouse gas emissions relative to GDP. Historical industrial policies from the 1990s heavily encouraged cheap, coal-powered electricity to attract metal refineries. However, these energy-intensive sectors downsized drastically over the past decade as grid tariffs tripled.
By 2025, coal still dominated the national energy mix, supplying 80 percent of South Africa's electricity. This compares significantly with China at roughly 55 percent and other upper-middle-income countries at slightly above 40 percent. Meanwhile, renewables contributed under 15 percent to South Africa's power generation. Logistics also exacerbate the country's emission profile, with heavy reliance on diesel-powered road freight for long-distance transport instead of rail infrastructure.
What comes next
Resistance from legacy entities remains strong, with institutions like Eskom reportedly aiming to keep older coal-fired generators operational past their scheduled phase-out dates in the early 2030s. Despite this institutional friction, market forces are shifting. Recent procurement rounds show renewable energy costs dropping to roughly a quarter of Eskom's prevailing tariffs. Furthermore, hybrid and electric vehicle adoption has climbed to approximately five percent of total sales, supported by affordable imports.
Why it matters
Managing the transition away from fossil fuels without compromising industrial competitiveness presents a delicate balancing act for emerging economies. According to World Bank figures from 2024, South Africa recorded an electricity access rate of 90.2 percent and electricity consumption of 3,308.2 kWh per person, trailing global averages where access stood at 91.9 percent and consumption reached 3,708.5 kWh per person. For energy investors and policymakers across the African continent, the South African case illustrates the complex socioeconomic friction of moving away from entrenched coal and liquid fuel dependencies while trying to capture the economic benefits of cheaper renewable technologies.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Renewables are the fastest-growing part of the world’s energy system. The COP28 goal is to triple capacity by 2030, and solar mini-grids are the fastest route to power for millions of people without electricity.
28.4% of electricity in China was renewable in 2021Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
