Gas
Japan projected to reclaim top global LNG importer spot
Japan is on track to surpass China as the world's leading liquefied natural gas importer this year, driven largely by Chinese market restraint.
Key points
- ICIS and Kpler forecast Japan will edge out China in 2026 import volumes.
- Chinese LNG demand has softened due to high prices, full storage, and domestic alternatives.
- China has emerged as a major LNG reseller owing to extensive long-term contract portfolios.
What happened
Japan is poised to become the world's largest liquefied natural gas importer in 2026, ending China's multi-year run at the top, according to forecasts from analytical firms ICIS and Kpler. Energy analysts attribute the shift to a contraction in Chinese spot purchasing rather than a surge in Japanese requirements.
ICIS projects full-year imports of 62 million metric tons for Japan and 61 million metric tons for China. Kpler places the figures slightly higher at 63 million metric tons for Japan and 62 million metric tons for China. China previously held the top spot from 2023 through 2025, following a rapid growth trajectory that peaked in 2021.
Data from early 2026 highlights the trend, with Chinese imports reaching 35.3 million metric tons between January and July, trailing Japan's 37.3 million metric tons. Analysts note that high global spot prices—exacerbated by Middle East geopolitical tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—have dampened Asian spot demand. Chinese underground storage facilities were already 80 to 90 percent full by the end of September, mitigating the need for further spot cargoes.
Market dynamics and reselling
Despite declining LNG imports, China's broader gas demand remains supported by domestic production and pipeline supplies, including the Power of Siberia pipeline from Russia. Chinese buyers previously secured extensive long-term commitments, with contracted volumes expected to reach 114 million metric tons by 2028.
This over-contracting has transformed China into a significant net reseller of LNG. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Chinese firms resold between 17 and 19 million metric tons in 2025, capitalizing on flexible portfolios to capture arbitrage opportunities in international markets.
Why it matters
The shifting trade rankings illustrate the sensitivity of Asian buyers to international gas pricing and supply security. With global energy benchmarks showing Henry Hub trading at 2.76 US dollars per MMBtu and Brent crude at 123.10 US dollars per barrel in late October 2026, high spot prices continue to reshape purchasing strategies across major economies.
For African gas producers and global investors, China's transition from a pure importer to a flexible arbitrage player highlights the evolving nature of global gas flows. As traditional supply routes face regional bottlenecks, Asian demand patterns will increasingly dictate the valuation and destination of flexible LNG cargoes worldwide.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Gas is the flexible backbone of many grids and the designated transition fuel in many national plans, from LNG trade to domestic LPG and CNG. Supply security and pricing drive both power reliability and emissions.
3.0% of electricity in China came from gas in 2024Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
