Official Oil
Global refinery throughput drops amid geopolitical disruption
Global crude oil refinery inputs fell significantly in the second quarter of 2026 due to conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, before staging a modest recovery.
Key points
- Global crude oil refinery inputs decreased by 4.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
- Refining activity declined sharply in Asia and the Middle East following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Attacks on Russian infrastructure further strained global diesel markets, leading to record nominal prices.
What happened
Global crude oil refinery inputs dropped by 6 percent, or 4.8 million barrels per day, during the second quarter of 2026, according to US Energy Information Administration figures citing data from Kpler. The downturn followed conflict in the Middle East that began in late February. Normally, refinery inputs rise during this period as facilities complete maintenance ahead of peak seasonal demand.
Throughput partially rebounded by 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter as operators adjusted trade flows and found alternative routes, though overall inputs remained about 5 percent lower than the same period in 2025. The disruptions heavily impacted major processing nations, with Chinese crude inputs falling by 2.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter and a further 0.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
Regional impacts and product markets
Countries heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz experienced notable reductions in processing volumes. Facilities in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all processed less crude during the second quarter. Meanwhile, continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure reduced Russian refinery inputs by 0.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter and an additional 0.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
These combined losses restricted supplies of refined products, particularly diesel. The resulting tight market conditions drove diesel prices to the highest nominal levels on record in September. In contrast, United States refiners increased crude inputs by 0.5 million barrels per day in both the second and third quarters, boosting exports of refined products to offset global shortfalls.
Why it matters
Geopolitical disruptions that restrict refining capacity in major producing regions send shockwaves through international fuel markets, directly impacting energy import costs across developing economies. For African nations that rely heavily on imported refined products, tighter global supplies and record fuel prices exacerbate macroeconomic pressures and increase energy costs for industrial and domestic consumers.
Energy investors and policy planners monitoring these global shifts must contend with volatile pricing environments. As of late October 2026, market benchmarks reflected these pressures, with the US EIA recording the Brent spot price at 123.10 US dollars per barrel and the US Gulf Coast diesel spot price at 4.767 US dollars per gallon. These elevated feedstock and product costs underscore the strategic vulnerability of import-dependent energy markets and reinforce the long-term case for expanding domestic refining capacity across the continent.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
