Gas
Global LNG buyers face $39 billion surge in costs amid Middle East crisis
Global liquefied natural gas importers will face significantly higher expenditures next year due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, according to Rystad Energy.
Key points
- Global liquefied natural gas expenditures are projected to reach $256 billion next year.
- Deliveries from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are assumed to be offline through the end of 2026.
- Europe faces the steepest financial increase, while East Asia is better insulated.
What happened
International liquefied natural gas purchasers are set to increase spending by at least $39 billion on contracts and spot purchases next year, according to research from Rystad Energy. This financial increase occurs despite a projected drop in total volume acquisition by 60.7 million tonnes, driven primarily by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Interruptions affecting Qatari and United Arab Emirates shipments through the Strait of Hormuz compel buyers to seek alternative cargoes at elevated rates. Overall portfolio expenditures are anticipated to climb to $256 billion, representing an 18 percent rise compared to pre-conflict projections. European nations carry the heaviest burden, with regional import bills expanding by a minimum of $12 billion despite a reduction in demand of 24 million tonnes.
Regional impacts
Europe entered the current disruption heavily reliant on immediate spot acquisitions, leaving limited capacity to absorb further shocks. The region is poised to forfeit the vast majority of scheduled Qatari deliveries for the upcoming year. Conversely, East Asia demonstrates greater resilience due to a diversified contract base and lower overall regional demand.
East Asia maintains a lower exposure to spot markets, with a significant majority of its long-term agreements tied to oil pricing benchmarks rather than gas spot indexes. Meanwhile, South Asian participants are curtailing import volumes more severely, and African nations like Egypt are experiencing heightened pricing pressures alongside increased import requirements.
Why it matters
The current disruption exposes vulnerabilities in relying on spot liquidity for residual energy requirements. For energy investors and policymakers across Africa, the crisis highlights the critical value of supply chain resilience and diversified transport routes that bypass maritime chokepoints. With Henry Hub natural gas spot prices resting at $3.1 per MMBtu as of October 2026, according to US Energy Information Administration figures, expanding production and alternative indexation methods offer important lessons for long-term supply security.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Gas is the flexible backbone of many grids and the designated transition fuel in many national plans, from LNG trade to domestic LPG and CNG. Supply security and pricing drive both power reliability and emissions.
21.9% of electricity in the world came from gas in 2024Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
