Oil
Chinese refiners expected to slow oil inventory drawdowns
China is set to decelerate the depletion of its oil reserves this October as crude imports begin to recover.
Key points
- Chinese refiners will slow reserve drawdowns in October as crude imports recover.
- Inventories fell to 1.09 billion barrels following recent wartime disruptions.
- Higher expected arrivals from November will help rebuild national stockpiles.
What happened
Chinese refiners are preparing to slow the drawdown of crude oil from national reserves this month as import volumes start to recover, according to analytics firm Energy Aspects. Recent purchases of Middle Eastern and Iraqi barrels are expected to arrive from November onwards, helping the world's largest oil importer rebuild its buffer against supply disruptions.
Vortexa data indicates that inventories fell by roughly 147 million barrels since the onset of the Middle East conflict, bringing total holdings down to 1.09 billion barrels. September saw the sharpest monthly decline since 2020, driven largely by state-owned processors dealing with ship-to-ship transfer bottlenecks around the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters
China's substantial stockpiles have served as a vital cushion against wartime supply shocks, allowing refineries to maintain operations without relying heavily on high-priced replacement barrels. However, the pressure has been particularly severe for private refiners. Kayrros reported that national inventories dropped to 1.18 billion barrels by October 11, marking a 16-month low, with certain independent processors at risk of depleting their reserves entirely before the end of the month.
What comes next
Oil imports into China are projected to rise over the coming months. Tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows that 96 supertankers are scheduled to arrive over the next three quarters, aided by new crude import quotas issued to private processors and increased exports from Saudi Arabia via ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
9.5% of world merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
