Renewables
China solar cell prices decline as industry mulls price floors
China's solar cell prices have dipped following the Golden Week holiday, while major manufacturers discuss potential price floors and capacity curbs.
Key points
- FOB China TOPCon M10 and 210R cell prices dropped following the Golden Week holiday, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report.
- Senior executives from major solar manufacturers reportedly discussed setting price floors and production restrictions during a meeting in Hangzhou.
- China added 97.19 GW of solar capacity between January and August, marking a significant year-on-year decrease according to National Energy Administration figures.
What happened
Solar cell prices in China edged lower following the Golden Week holiday, ending a brief two-week period of stability, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on October 13. Free-On-Board prices for TOPCon M10 cells decreased by 0.86% to $0.0463 per watt, while TOPCon 210R cells declined by 0.66% to $0.0454 per watt. Both formats remained approximately 13% below their peaks from late August as international demand showed signs of softening.
Amid these market pressures, senior executives from several prominent solar manufacturing firms gathered in Hangzhou on October 11. While unconfirmed officially, participants reportedly discussed capacity restrictions and proposed establishing a minimum polysilicon price of 43 yuan ($6.38) per kilogram including tax, classifying sales beneath this threshold as dumping. Additional proposals included module price floors for TOPCon and back-contact models.
Why it matters
Global photovoltaic supply chains face a complex mix of regulatory shifts and weakening demand. According to a trader source and the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, incoming United States restrictions on stockpiling are anticipated to further dampen overseas demand ahead of Section 232 measures slated for December 4.
Domestic installation growth in China has also slowed markedly. National Energy Administration figures show the country added 97.19 GW of solar capacity between January and August, representing a year-on-year decline of over 57%. Meanwhile, manufacturers are preparing for lower output in October due to production-line upgrades ahead of new minimum efficiency standards taking effect on January 1, 2027.
What comes next
Industry participants note that voluntary self-regulatory agreements and proposed price floors lack legal enforceability, meaning actual transaction values will continue to rely on underlying supply and demand fundamentals. Adherence to the proposed guidelines remains dependent on the willingness of individual manufacturers.
In India, a local manufacturer reported that a prior purchasing surge from the commercial and industrial sector is slowing down. Although an extended exemption allows eligible projects commissioned by December 31, 2026, to bypass domestic sourcing rules, high FOB prices from China and the approaching deadline have made further inventory accumulation less attractive.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Renewables are the fastest-growing part of the world’s energy system. The COP28 goal is to triple capacity by 2030, and solar mini-grids are the fastest route to power for millions of people without electricity.
28.4% of electricity in China was renewable in 2021Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
