Renewables
BloombergNEF forecasts lower global solar installations for 2026
Global solar installations are projected to reach 584 GW in 2026, driven by a deeper-than-expected slowdown in China.
Key points
- BloombergNEF projects 584 GW of global solar installations in 2026, a 10.8% decline from 2025.
- China's installations are expected to drop 29% to 271 GW due to market saturation and policy shifts.
- Growth in markets like Nigeria, India, Malaysia, and the Philippines is helping offset the Chinese slowdown.
What happened
Global solar installations are projected to hit 584 GW in 2026, according to a revised forecast by BloombergNEF reported by pv magazine. This figure represents a 10.8% decline from the 655 GW installed globally in 2025. Earlier projections from December 2025 had anticipated 649 GW for 2026, while first-quarter 2025 estimates stood as high as 753 GW.
The downward revision is largely attributed to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China. BloombergNEF estimates that China will deploy 271 GW in 2026, marking a 29% drop from the 383 GW installed in 2025. Data for the first half of 2026 shows China installed approximately 71.8 GW, down roughly 66% from 212.2 GW during the same period in the previous year.
Why it matters
BloombergNEF CleanTech Analyst Jenny Chase noted that growth in China can no longer sustain its historical pace, pointing to market saturation and a shift in policy focus toward energy storage under a new five-year plan.
While utility-scale installations in China pull back, the rest of the world has slightly outperformed previous expectations. Global non-China deployment is projected to reach 313 GW in 2026. Growth is being supported by markets such as India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Nigeria. In Nigeria and the Philippines, this expansion is driven almost entirely by residential and commercial installations. This trend reflects a broader shift where non-utility solar has become the largest sector of global renewable energy investment.
What comes next
BloombergNEF indicates that while other regions are growing slightly faster than anticipated, they are not expanding rapidly enough to completely offset the cooling of the massive Chinese market. The transition toward distributed commercial and residential systems in emerging markets highlights changing investment patterns across the global renewable energy landscape.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Renewables are the fastest-growing part of the world’s energy system. The COP28 goal is to triple capacity by 2030, and solar mini-grids are the fastest route to power for millions of people without electricity.
28.4% of electricity in China was renewable in 2021Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
