Renewables
Water security must guide fossil fuel expansion in Africa
Ahead of COP31, analysts warn that Africa's energy transition must rigorously evaluate the heavy water demands of proposed fossil fuel developments.
Key points
- Fossil fuel expansion plans often neglect severe local water scarcity.
- Climate change and El Niño risks threaten already strained water systems.
- Experts call for mandatory, transparent water assessments prior to project approval.
What happened
According to allAfrica.com, energy discussions in South Africa frequently prioritise electricity supply and economic growth while neglecting the severe strain new infrastructure places on scarce water resources. Ahead of COP31, legal experts Dr Jonty Cogger and Paul Wani Lado have raised concerns that proposed fossil fuel projects could exacerbate water insecurity for vulnerable local communities.
The authors highlight that South Africa faces acute water challenges, including unreliable municipal services and deteriorating infrastructure. Climate change further compounds these risks by driving higher temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns. Projections from the Endangered Wildlife Trust indicate that a strong El Niño event could diminish dam levels, reduce river flows, and increase agricultural irrigation demand.
Managing resource competition
The reporting cautions that labelling gas as a transitional fuel does not eliminate the environmental and social costs borne by local populations. Projects designed to boost national energy security may inadvertently undermine it if they compete directly with households, farmers, and natural ecosystems for dwindling water supplies. Governments risk repeating outdated development models where powerful economic interests capture the benefits while communities absorb the ecological consequences.
To prevent this imbalance, the authors advocate for treating water availability as a strict boundary for industrial development. Authorities should mandate public, evidence-based water assessments before granting approval for new energy infrastructure, including pipelines and power stations. These assessments must account for cumulative demands and changing climatic conditions.
Why it matters
For energy investors and policymakers across the continent, balancing industrial growth with environmental limits remains a critical operational challenge. While global gas benchmarks show specific pricing trends—such as Henry Hub natural gas trading at 2.63 US dollars per MMBtu in November 2026 according to US Energy Information Administration data—local project viability increasingly depends on resource availability and social license. Integrating water security into early-stage energy planning helps mitigate long-term regulatory, financial, and operational risks for investors operating in water-scarce African markets.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Renewables are the fastest-growing part of the world’s energy system. The COP28 goal is to triple capacity by 2030, and solar mini-grids are the fastest route to power for millions of people without electricity.
27.8% of electricity in the world was renewable in 2021Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
