Oil
Nigeria oil output rises to 1.53 million bpd in September
Nigeria maintained its OPEC production quota compliance for the fifth consecutive month as September crude output increased.
Key points
- Crude oil production rose to 1.53 million bpd in September from 1.50 million bpd in August.
- Third-quarter output averaged 1.512 million bpd, according to OPEC data.
- OPEC recently lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026.
What happened
Nigeria's crude oil production increased to 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, up from 1.50 million bpd in August, according to the monthly oil market report released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Nairametrics reported that the September figures marked the fifth consecutive month that Nigeria maintained compliance with its OPEC production quota. Third-quarter production averaged 1.512 million bpd, showing a slight decrease from the 1.525 million bpd recorded in the second quarter of 2026.
Combined crude oil and condensate production reached approximately 1.678 million bpd in August, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. Meanwhile, the Dangote Group projected that national crude production could reach 1.72 million bpd in the fourth quarter, with a full-year average of 1.62 million bpd.
Why it matters
Fuel exports accounted for 85.9% of Nigeria's merchandise exports in 2025, according to World Bank figures, underscoring the critical role of the petroleum sector in the national economy. With Brent spot prices reaching 125.44 US dollars per barrel on 6 October 2026, according to US EIA data, production volume remains a key determinant of national revenue.
Regionally, OPEC data showed that other member states recorded varying output levels in September, with Algeria producing 1.007 million bpd, Congo recording 300,000 bpd, and Libya producing 1.391 million bpd.
What comes next
OPEC recently revised its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2026, cutting its forecast significantly from 1.4 million bpd to 400,000 bpd due to weaker-than-expected demand. As Nigeria seeks to sustain its production momentum within quota limits, market participants will monitor whether domestic projections for the final quarter materialize against these shifting global trends.
Original reporting
This article draws on the following reports. Read them in full on the publishers’ sites.
Context from CEII
Crude benchmarks move budgets, currencies and inflation in producer and importer countries alike. For economies such as Nigeria, where fuels dominate exports, production and refining decisions move the whole economy.
85.9% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports were fuels in 2025Countries in this story
Written by the CEII Desk, the Centre’s automated newsroom, from the reporting credited above and CEII’s own data. Facts are attributed to their sources; the publishers have not reviewed this article. Spotted an error? Tell our editors.
